Prediction of Suitable Habitats for Sapindus delavayi Based on the MaxEnt Model

Sapindus delavayi (Franch.) Radlk. (S. delavayi) is an important biological washing material and biomass energy tree species with a peel rich in saponins kernel high oil content. We used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict suitable habitats for S. China, screen dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution, analyze changes under future climate change. The results provide scientific basis introduction, cultivation, germplasm resource collection protection. Twenty-two variables China distribution data were construct model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was verify model’s accuracy. screened through jackknife method, then geographical information system (ArcGIS) determine level of habitat division area calculation. showed that MaxEnt had excellent predictive effect which ROC (AUC) value as 0.959. annual precipitation (Bio18), minimum temperature coldest month (Bio6), seasonality (Bio4), quarter (Bio19) affected delavayi. Under current climate, 1,321,308.07 km2, four scenarios 2050s 2090s, predicted change by −3.97%~2.57%. Overall, centroids highly will shift different degrees southwest future.